Ukunyuka komugqa wolwandle

Kusuka ngo-1993, izisekelo zilinganisela ubude bendawo yolwandle kusuka ku-orbit kuya kumasentimitha ambalwa, futhi futhi, kuwo wonke umhlaba. Their record leaves little doubt: global mean sea level has risen by about ten centimetres in three decades, and it is rising faster now than when the measurements began. Ngomlando omde, kusuka ku 1901 kuya ku 2018, ukunyuka kwakuyi 20 centimetres, ngokushesha kunanoma yisiphi ikhulu lamawaka amathathu adlule, ngokusho kwe-IPCC.

Ama-engine amabili

Izindlela ezimbili ziphakamisa ilwandle, futhi zombili ziqhutshwa ukufudumala:

• Ama-waters akhula njengoba epholile. I-ocean ithathe ngaphezulu kwephesenti le-90 lokushisa okuningi okugcinwe yigesi ye-greenhouse. Ukushisa kwamanzi kuthatha indawo eningi. Kuphakathi kuka-1971 no-2018, lokhu kuthuthukiswa kwe-thermal kwachaza cishe inhlamvu yesithathu sokukhula.
• Iqhwa ezweni lihlanganiswa lwandle. Amagquma aphezulu eqhwa abuyela emuva, futhi ama-ice sheets amakhulu aseGreenland naseAntarctica alahlekelwa yiqhwa eliningi kunaleyo imvula yeqhwa efakazelayo. Ukuncibilika kwe ikhephu laselwandle, elizohamba eduze, akutholi lutho; ukuncibilika kwe ikhephu lendawo engaphansi komhlaba kungeza ngqo emfuleni.

Ihora elihamba kancane, elide

Isimo sezulu siphendula ngokucophelela. Ukushisa kuqhubeka nokusakazeka elwandle olunzulu futhi ama-ice sheets aqhubeka nokulungisa iminyaka emikhulu ngemuva kokuthi umoya uvale ukufudumala, ngakho ezinye izikhuphuka zikhona. Isinqumo esizothatha manje sisho ukuthi singakanani futhi singahamba kanjani ngokushesha. Izinga le-IPCC elilindelekile ngo-2100, liqhathaniswa no-1995 kuya ku-2014, lisuka ku-0.28 kuye ku-0.55 amamitha engxenyeni ephansi kakhulu yendlela yokukhishwa kuze kube yi-0.63 kuye ku-1.01 amamitha engxenyeni ephezulu kakhulu. Ukunyuka okuncane kwemitha ezimbili ngo-2100 akudingeki ukuba kubhekwe uma izingqimba zeqhwa zingazinzi.

Isentimitha ngayinye yobude belwandle ibeka izakhiwo eziningi ezifinyeleleka yimvula elandelayo.

Okushoyo abantu akuyona kuphela isilinganiso. Ulwandle oluphezulu luguqula izikhukhula ezincane zibe yizo ezijwayelekile: ezindaweni eziningi, izikhukhula ezivame ukukwenzeka kabili ngonyaka zilindeleke ukuthi kwenzeke ngonyaka we-2100 ngaphansi kokushisa okuphezulu. Ulwandle lucindezela amanzi abandayo emazwenikazi nasezingxenyeni ezingaphansi komhlaba, futhi ezinye iziqhingi zihlanganiswa njengoba amanzi ezindaweni eziphansi ephuzwa ngaphandle, okuzophinda umphumela.

Izixazululo eziqinisekisiwe

Ukunyuka kwamanzi akuyona into entsha kubantu abaphila eduze kolwandle, futhi ezinye izizwe zihlala ngaphansi kwayo iminyaka emikhulu. Ulwazi lwabo lubonisa ukuthi iziqhingi zingaba phephile kakhulu, ngokukwakha, ngokwenza indawo yamanzi nokusebenza nemvelo, uma ukwakhiwa kuqala kuqala futhi kuqhubeka iminyaka eminingi.

• Kunciphise ukukhishwa. I-lever enkulu kakhulu: yonke itoni ye-CO2 evimbelwe ikunciphisa ukwehla okuqhubekayo.

• Protect: the Dutch Delta Works. Ku 1953 imvula enamandla yaseNtshonalanga yaphula ama-Dutch dikes kanye ne 1,836 people died. I-Netherlands yaphendula ngemisebenzi yeDelta, iqembu lamadamu, ama-sluices namabhande omlilo aguqule amakhilomitha angama-700 ezindaweni eziseduze nezindawo ezibandayo zibe yizinkulungwane eziyisi-80. Ingxenye yokuqala enkulu, iMaeslant Barrier etholakala eRotterdam, yaqedwa ngo-1997. Izindonga zayo ezimbili, ngayinye enemimitha engu-210 ububanzi nemimitha engu-22 ubude, zivala ngokuzenzakalela lapho amanzi elindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke ngamamitha ayisikhombisa ngaphezu komhlaba ojwayelekile ongaphansi kweRotterdam; zigcwele amanzi futhi zihlanganiswa phansi ngaphakathi kwehora elilodwa. Ivala ngo-2007 (Rijkswaterstaat; Rijkswaterstaat).

• Izivikela: iThames Barrier. I-London’s barrier ifinyelela kumamitha angama-520 weThames eWoolwich futhi ivikela amakhilomitha ayi-125 aphakathi kweLondon ekuhlaselweni yimvula. Kusuka lapho yaqala ukusebenza 1982 ivalelwe 221 times ukuvimbela izikhukhula, kusukela ngoNovemba 2025 (Environment Agency).

• Make room for water. Ngemuva kokugwazeka komfula e-1993 ne-1995, lapho abantu abangu-250,000 eGelderland behlukaniswa njengengozi, iNetherlands yashintsha indlela yayo: endaweni yokuphakamisa kuphela amatshe, yanikeza imifula indawo engaphezulu. The Room for the River programme widened the space for high water, for example by digging new flood channels, at 34 locations along the IJssel, Waal, Lower Rhine and Lek between 2006 and 2019, for €2.3 billion, improving safety for around 4 million people (Rijkswaterstaat).

• Beka umsebenzi nobuciko. Ama-mangroves, ama-salt marshes, ama-dunes nama-reefs athatha amandla e-wave futhi angakhula nolwandle. Ukuhlolwa kwendawo kwathola ukuthi ubude be-wave buphansi ngo-13 kuya ku-66% ngamamitha angama-100 ngalinyeMcIvor et al., 2012). Ezweni lonke, ama-mangroves avimbela ukulahlekelwa yimvula engaphezu kuka US$65 billion ngonyaka futhi agcine abantu abangaphezu kuka 15 million bephephile; IVietnam, i-India neBangladesh zithola abantu abakhuselekile kakhulu (Menéndez et al., 2020). Ngonyaka ka-2012, ngesikhathi seHurricane Sandy, izifunda ezibandayo zaseNtshonalanga-mpumalanga yezwe laseMelika zavimbela ukulahlekelwa yizigidi ezingama-US$625 ngenxa yolwandle.Narayan et al., 2017).

• Plain retreat where needed: managed realignment. EMedmerry eWest Sussex, i-Environmental Agency, ne-RSPB, yayeka ukuvala ibhange le-shingle elizodinga ukulungisa njalo futhi, ngoNovemba 2013, lakhiwa amakhilomitha angama-7 olwandle olusha oluya ngaphakathi, lushiya umfula ngasemva. I-£28 million scheme ikhuphule umthelela wemvula emigodini eminingi, yadala amahektha angama-183 amathuba okuphila okusha kwamanzi abandayo kanye nokulondoloza cishe ama-£300,000 ngonyaka ekulungiseni (Environment Agency, 2016; Environment Agency).

• Izindlu ezilungele. Ukwakha izindlu nezitezi, ukuvimbela ulwandle ekuvuleni, nokwenza i-drainage ephakeme kakhulu.
• Suka ukudonsa. Ukunciphisa ukukhipha amanzi eqhwa kunciphisa ukudonsa okubangela ukuthi amanzi akhuphuke abe nzima.

Akunalutho lwalezi zindawo oluqediwe. I-Netherlands isivele ithuthukisa izimo zayo zokuvimbela ukunyuka kwemvula ukuze ikwazi ukulwa nolwandle oluphezulu. Kodwa lezi zindawo zibonisa ukuthi izwe elizolinganisa ngokusemthethweni ingozi yayo futhi libeke izinqubomgomo eziphambili lingagcina abantu bephephile.

Izinhlangano ezisebenza kulolu msebenzi

Lezi zinkampani ezingatholakali zikhona izibalo zomphakathi zemiphumela. Thola ukuthi yini abayenzayo, futhi uma umsebenzi wabo ukhuluma nawe, cabanga ukunikela kubo ngokuqondile ngewebhusayithi yabo. I Local Solar System Foundation ayisebenzisi noma iyiphi yazo futhi ayitholanga lutho kuzo. Phambi kokuba ukhokhe, funda ingxelo yonyaka nezimali zenhlangano ngayinye, njengoba ungenza nanoma iyiphi inhlangano enikelayo.

• Iphrojekthi Yokusebenza Kwemangrove iyinhlangano yobuciko yase-US enesizinda se-501(c)(3), yasungulwa ngo-1992. Iqeqesha izinhlangano, abaphathi bezihlahla kanye nezinhlangano zokulondolozwa nge-Community-Based Ecological Mangrove Restoration, indlela evuselela amanzi adingekayo amamangrove ukuze abuye ngazo, hhayi ukutshala kuphela izinhlamvu ezihlala zifa. Ixhase ukuvuselelwa kwe-mangrove ezindaweni ezingaphezu kuka-20.
• Wetlands International yinhlangano ye-Dutch esebenza ngenzuzo yomphakathi (ANBI) enezindawo zokusebenzela emhlabeni wonke futhi isebenza emazweni angaphezu kuka-100. In Demak, on the north coast of Java, where the sea has taken more than 3 kilometres of land in places, it led a 2015 to 2020 programme that built permeable brushwood fences to trap mud so that mangroves could grow back, to protect about 70,000 people from erosion and flooding (Wetlands International).

• Climate Central iyinhlangano engekho emthethweni yase-US engathola inzuzo (501(c)(3)) eyasungulwa ngo-2008. Ama-maps ayo amahhala avumela wonke umuntu ukuthi abone ukuthi yikuphi umhlaba olindeleke ukuba kube ngaphansi kwezinhlayiya zemvula njengoba ilwandle likhuphuka, nama-maps ayo kanye nokucwaninga kusetshenziswa izinhlangano zokuxhumana ezingaphezu kuka-170 zamazwe. Ukwazi ingozi yakho yisinqumo sokuqala sokuhlela.

Ungasiza kanjani

• Uyazi ingozi yakho. Thola indlu yakho, isikole noma indawo yokusebenza kunoma iyiphi imaphu yendawo ephakathi kwelwandle noma yokugwaza, futhi wenze izinhlelo zokugwaza zemindeni uma uhlala eduze kolwandle.
• Guqula ubuhle bendawo. Umsebenzi wezandla noma ukuxhasa amaqembu avuselela ama-mangroves, ama-marshes nama-dunes.
• Buza ikomiti lakho ngezinhlelo zayo zokuzilungisa, nokuthi ngabe isakhiwo esitshaleliwe sivunyelwe yini ezweni elizogwadla.
• Nciphisa ukukhishwa kwakho lapho kubaluleke kakhulu: ukushisa ekhaya, ukuhamba kanye nogesi.
• Hlanganisa idatha. Gcina lesi sichazamazwi noma ngeza idatha ye-tide-gauge yasendaweni ngebhodi le-contribution.

Izinsizakusebenza

• IPCC (2021), Iqembu Lokusebenza le-AR6 I, Isishwankathelo Sokwenza Amaphoyisa
• IPCC (2021), AR6 Working Group I, Chapter 9: Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change
• IPCC (2019), Ingxelo Ekhethekile Ngolwandle kanye neCryosphere eMguqukweni Wesimo Sezulu
• I-NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, Sea level rise. Ulwazi lwe-altimetry luhlinzekwa yi-NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry.
• NASA, Ushintsho lwezinga lelwandle
• Rijkswaterstaat, De watersnoodramp van 1953 and Deltawerken (ngesiDutch)
• Rijkswaterstaat, Maeslant Barrier
• Rijkswaterstaat, Igumbi leNtaba
• I-Environmental Agency, The Thames Barrier
• I-Menéndez et al. (2020), Izinzuzo zokuvikela izikhukhula eziwumhlaba wonke zemangroves, Imibiko yeSayensi 10
• I-Narayan et al. (2017), Inani lezindawo ezimanzi ezisenyakatho-ntshonalanga zezwe lokuncipha kokulimala kwezintaba, Izibikezelo Zobudokotela 7
• I-Environment Agency (2016), IMedmerry ibonisana ne-IUCN World Conservation Congress
• I-Environment Agency, EA ithuthukisa indawo yokuhlala kanye nesikhungo solwandle esihamba phambili esigabeni esisha se-Global Standard sezindlela ezisekelwe emkhathini
• I-Wetlands International, Ukuthuthukiswa ngemvelo e-Indonesia
• McIvor, Möller, Spencer noSpalding (2012), Ukuncipha kwengcindezi yezulu nokugwadla kwamagagasi ngamamangroves, Ukuvikelwa Kwemvelo Kwezilwandle Isiqephu 1, I-Nature Conservancy ne-Wetlands International
• I-Narayan et al. (2016), Imiphumela, izindleko kanye nenzuzo yokuvikela i-coastal yemvelo nemvelo esekelwe ekukhuseleni, PLOS ONE 11