Ukunyuka komphakamo wolwandle

Ukusuka ngo-1993, iisetilayithi ziyilinganisele ubude bendawo yolwandle ukusuka kwimozulu ukuya ngaphakathi kweesentimitha ezimbalwa, kwakhona nokunye, kuzo zonke iindawo zeplanethi. Their record leaves little doubt: global mean sea level has risen by about ten centimetres in three decades, and it is rising faster now than when the measurements began. Over the longer record, from 1901 to 2018, the rise was about 20 centimetres, faster than in any century of the past three thousand years, according to the IPCC.

Iinjini ezimbini

Iinkqubo ezimbini zinyusa umlambo, zombini ziqhutywa kukufudumeza:

• Amanzi akhula xa eshushu. Umlambo uthathe ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-90 zobushushu obungaphezulu obuqhekeke yigesi yegreenhouse. Amanzi ashushu athatha indawo eninzi. Phakathi konyaka we1971 nowe2018 olu khuphiswano lobushushu luchaza malunga nengxenye yokukhula.
• Umkhenkce elwandle ushushu. Iiglasi zenduli zibuyela umva, kwaye iileyibhile ezinkulu zomkhenkce zaseGreenland neAntarctica zilahlekelwa ngumkhenkce ongaphezulu kunekhephu elitshintshayo. Ukutshisa umkhenkce welwandle, osele ujikeleza, awunakudibanisa nantoni na; ukutshisa umkhenkce womhlaba ukongeza ngqo kwilwandle.

Iinketho ze projekti

Umphakamo wolwandle uphendula ngokucothayo. Ubushushu buqhubeka nokusasazeka kwilwandle olunzulu kwaye iithayile zomkhenkce ziqhubeka nokutshintsha ngekhulu emva kokuba umoya uvale ukufudumeza, ngoko ke ezinye iziphakamo ezingaphezulu sele zitshixiwe. Oku sikhethayo ngoku kugqiba ukuba kuphi na kwaye kuphi ngokukhawuleza. I-IPCC’s enokuthi ifike kwiminyaka eyi-2100, ngokubhekisele kunyaka we-1995 ukuya kunyaka we-2014, iqala kwi 0.28 ukuya kwi-0.55 metres kwindlela ye-emitting ephantsi ukuya kwi 0.63 ukuya kwi-1.01 metres kwindlela ephezulu kakhulu. Ukunyuka okufutshane nemitha ezimbini ngo-2100 akuyi kuthintelwa ukuba iilebhile zomkhenkce ziye zangenakumelana.

Yonke isentimitha yomphakamo wolwandle ibeka amakhaya angaphezulu ekufikeleleni kwesiqhelo esilandelayo.

Okubalulekileyo kubantu akuyiyo kuphela i-rate. Ulwandle oluphezulu luguqula izilibazi eziqhelekileyo zibe ziyingozi: kwiindawo ezininzi, isilibazi esisetyenziswa ukubangela ukuba kube kanye ngekhulu lilindeleke ukuba sikwenzeke ngonyaka ngo-2100 phantsi kobushushu obuphezulu. Amalwandle ashushu aqhuba emanzini kunye nemilambo, kwaye ezinye iziqithi zihla njengoko amanzi emhlaba ephazamiseka ngaphandle, oku kwenza ukuba ingozi ibe nkulu.

Iinkqubo eziqinisekisiweyo

Amanzi anyukayo akutsha kubahlali baselwandle, kwaye ezinye ilizwe zihlala phantsi kwamanzi iminyaka emininzi. Iimvakalelo zabo zibonisa ukuba iintaba-mlilo zingabekwa phantsi ngokukhuselekileyo, ngokwakha, ngokwenza indawo yamanzi kunye nokusebenza nendalo, xa ucwangciso luqala kuqala kwaye luqhubeka kwiminyaka emininzi.

• Ukucinywa kwee-emitters. Isixhobo esiphambili: itoni nganye ye-CO2 ekhuselwe ikunciphisa ukunyuka okulandelayo.

• Gcina: i-Dutch Delta Works. Ngo-1953 umsinga wemvula eMntla lwandle waphula iidiyikhi zaseDatshi 1,836 abantu bafa. The Netherlands answered with the Delta Works, a chain of dams, sluices and storm-surge barriers that turned about 700 kilometres of ragged coastline into a much shorter, straighter line of about 80. Inxalenye yokugqibela enkulu, iMaeslant Barrier ecaleni kweRotterdam, yagqitywa ngo1997. Iindonga zayo ezimbini, nganye i-210 yeemitha ububanzi kunye ne-22 yeemitha ubude, zivala ngokuzenzekelayo xa amanzi elindeleke ukuba akhuphe ngaphezulu kweemitha ezintathu ngaphezu komphakamo oqhelekileyo wolwandle kufutshane neRotterdam; zigcwele amanzi kwaye zihla ezantsi kwiyure ezimbini. Yavala kuqala ngo-2007 (Rijkswaterstaat; Rijkswaterstaat).

• Guqula: iThames Barrier. I-London’s barrier ijikeleza ngeemitha ezingama-520 zeThames eWoolwich kwaye ikhusela iikhilomitha ezili-125 zesikwere saseLondon phezulu kwisantya solwandle. Since it began working in 1982 it has been closed 221 times to hold back floods, as of November 2025 (Environment Agency).

• Make room for water. After river floods in 1993 and 1995, when about 250,000 people in Gelderland alone were evacuated as a precaution, the Netherlands changed its approach: instead of only raising dikes, it gave rivers more space. The Room for the River programme widened the space for high water, for example by digging new flood channels, at 34 locations along the IJssel, Waal, Lower Rhine and Lek between 2006 and 2019, for €2.3 billion, improving safety for around 4 million people (Rijkswaterstaat).

• Lula nobume bendalo. Iimango, amalwandle ashushu, iinduli kunye neendawo ezikhuselekileyo zitsala amandla omsinga kwaye zingakhula kunye nomlambo. Field measurements found wave heights 13 to 66 percent lower for every 100 metres of mangroves (McIvor et al., 2012). Worldwide, mangroves prevent more than US$65 billion of flood damage a year and keep more than 15 million people from being flooded; Vietnam, India and Bangladesh gain the most in people protected (Menéndez et al., 2020). Ngexesha leHurricane Sandy ngo-2012, iindawo ezimanzi ekumntla-mpuma weUnited States zakhuselwa malunga ne-US$625 yezigidiNarayan et al., 2017).

• Plan retreat where needed: managed realignment. At Medmerry in West Sussex, the Environment Agency, with the RSPB, stopped patching a shingle bank that needed constant repair and, by November 2013, had built 7 kilometres of new embankments further inland, letting the sea in behind. The £28 million scheme reduced flood risk to hundreds of properties, created 183 hectares of new tidal habitat for wildlife and saves about £300,000 a year in repairs (Environment Agency, 2016; Environment Agency).

• Ilungele. Yenza isakhiwo kunye neendlela, umgangatho ophantsi okhuselekileyo ekuhlaselweni ngamanzi, kwaye ucwangcise ukutywina kweelwandle eziphezulu.
• Sukuhla. Ukunciphisa ukutywina kwamanzi aphantsi komhlaba kukhawuleza ukuwa ezantsi okubangela ukuba amanzi akhuphe abuye abe mabi.

Akukho ndawo yazo igqityiwe. INetherlands sele iqhuba ukuphuculwa kweendawo ezikhuselayo kwimvula eshushu ukuhlangabezana nesantya esiphezulu selwandle. Kodwa ezi ndawo zibonisa ukuba ilizwe elichaphazela umngcipheko wayo ngokunyanisekileyo kwaye licwangcise phambili lingagcina abantu bekhuselekile.

IiNkonzo

ezingenanzuzo zineenkcukacha zobuqu zeziphumo. Ukujongana nokungasebenzi kakuhle kwengqondo, umzekelo, kuxhomekeke ekubeni ngaba umntu osebenza naye esebenzisa i-intanethi okanye asebenzise i-smartphone. I Local Solar System Foundation ayihambelani nanye yazo kwaye ayifumananga nto kuzo. Phambi kokuba unikezele, funda ingxelo yonyaka ekutshanje kunye neeakhawunti zeqela ngalinye, njengoko uza kwenza nakweyiphi na inkqubo yezemali.

• Iprojekthi yoMsebenzi weMangrove yinkampani yezemali yaseMelika enesiqu se-501(c)(3), yasekwa ngowe-1992. Iqeqesha amaqela osapho, abaphathi bemithi kunye namalungu okhuseleko kwiNkqubo yoKubuyisela iMangwevu eMvelaphi yeNdawo, indlela ebuyisela amanzi aphumayo afunekayo kumagwebu ukuze abuye ngokwawo, kunokuba ukubeka kuphela izityalo ezihlala zifa. Ixhase ukubuyiselwa kweengcango zemithi eluhlaza kwilizwe elingaphezulu kwama-20.
• Iindawo ezimanzi zikarhulumente yi-Dutch yeqela elinceda abantu (ANBI) elinazo iiofisi emhlabeni wonke kwaye lisebenza kumalizwe angaphezu kwama-100. In Demak, on the north coast of Java, where the sea has taken more than 3 kilometres of land in places, it led a 2015 to 2020 programme that built permeable brushwood fences to trap mud so that mangroves could grow back, to protect about 70,000 people from erosion and flooding (Wetlands International).

• Climate Central yi-US engasebenziyo engekho mthethweni (501(c)(3)) eyasekwa ngo-2008. Its free maps let anyone see which land is projected to be below flood levels as the sea rises, and its maps and analyses are used by news outlets in more than 170 countries. Ukwazi umngcipheko wakho yinyathelo lokuqala lokucwangcisa ukuwumelana nalo.

Uncedo olufumanekayo

• Uyazi umngcipheko wakho. Khangela indlu yakho, isikolo okanye indawo yokusebenza kwimaphu yomgangatho welwandle okanye yomlambo ovulekileyo, kwaye wenze inkqubo yokuhlambela usapho ukuba uhlala phantsi kweelwandle.
• Gcina ubuhle bendalo obuselwandle. Yilungu leqela okanye xhasa amaqela abuyisela iintaba-mlilo, imilambo kunye needune.
• Umbuzo obalulekileyo, nokuba isakhiwo esitsha sivunyelwe na kuloo ndawo inokuba lihlathi.
• Cima ukuphuma kwakho kwegesi apho kubaluleke kakhulu: ukufudumeza indlu, ukuhamba nombane.
• Yabelana nge data. Guqulela le ncwadi yokuchaza okanye yongeza idata yendawo yovavanyo lwe-tide-gauge ngokudibanisa kwi ibhodi yokunikwa ingqalelo.

IiNkonzo zoLuntu

• IPCC (2021), AR6 Iqela lokusebenza I, Isishwankathelo sabantu abavelisa inkqubo
• IPCC (2021), AR6 Iqela lokusebenza I, Isahluko 9: Utshintsho lomphakamo welwandle, i-cryosphere kunye ne-ocean
• IPCC (2019), Ingxelo Ekhethekileyo Ngezilwandle Nesihlabathi Esibandayo Kwimozulu Etshintshayo
• Ilaboratorium ye-NOAA yobude besatellite, ukukhupha komphakamo welwandle. I-data ye-altimetry inikezelwa yi-NOAA Laboratory yeSatellite Altimetry.
• NASA, Utshintsho lomphakamo welwandle
• Rijkswaterstaat, De watersnoodramp van 1953 and Deltawerken (ngesiDutch)
• Maeslant Barrier
• Rijkswaterstaat, Igumbi lomlambo
• I-Environmental Agency, The Thames Barrier
• U-Menéndez nokunye (2020), Iinzuzo zokhuselo lweemangrove ezichaphazela ihlabathi, IiNgxelo zeSayensi 10
• Narayan et al. (2017), Ixabiso leendawo ezimanzi ekumntla-mpuma weUSA, IiNgxelo zeSayensi 7
• I-Environmental Agency (2016), IMedmerry ibonakaliswe kwi-IUCN World Conservation Congress
• I-Environmental Agency, EA ivelise indawo yokuhlala kunye nenkqubo yolwandle eqhuba indlela kwiSiqinisekiso esitsha sehlabathi sokufumana iingxaki ezisekelwe kubuhle bendalo
• I-Wetlands International, Ukwakha noMhlaba waseIndonesia
• McIvor, Möller, Spencer noSpalding (2012), Ukunciphisa umphunga kunye namaza okudada ngeengcambu zemango, Ukhuseleko oluNzulu lweMlambo 1, I-Nature Conservancy and Wetlands International
• Narayan et al. (2016), Impumelelo, iindleko kunye nenzuzo yokhuseleko lweendawo ezikufutshane nelwandle ezisekelwe kukhuselo oluqhelekileyo nolusekelwe kubuhle bendalo, PLOS ONE 11