Kuda kugadzikana

Nekudaro, magetsi anofanira kusangana nechinodiwa chemari uye zvinodiwa nevatengi. For a century that was done by adjusting supply: coal, gas and hydro plants followed whatever people chose to switch on. Usiku nezuva hazvigone kutaurwa kuti rinofanira kugadzirwa ripi, saka grid yakachena inofanirwawo kuita kuti imwe hafu yeequation iende pamwe chete. Kuchinja kwedambudziko rinoreva kuchinja kana tichishandisa magetsi, uye dzimwe nguva kuti tiri kushandisa sei, zvichienderana nemitengo, masimba kana otomatiki kudzora, pasina kubvisa basa ritinoda: madziro anotonhora, imba inotonhora, mota yakabhadharwa, zvinwiwa zvakachena.

Icho chimwe chezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi zvinopa simba rakawanda kupfuura zvimwe zvatinoda. Izvozvo ndizvo chaizvo zvinokosha. ** A kilowatt-hour akaendeswa kubva peak manheru muzuva zuva mushure mekudya kwemanheru anogona kuchinja gasi plant’s output uye kuchengetedza simba rezuva kuti zvinenge zvakatorwa, pamitengo yemutungamiriri uye akakodzera tarisiro. Izvi zvinoshanda pamhando yezviuru zvemahotera. Zvimwe zvinokanganisa chokwadi ndezvokutenda, kuongorora uye kufara kwevanhu vanoda kutora chikamu, kwete physics.**

Chii icho

Kuchinja kwedambudziko kunoreva zvese zvinobvumira kushandiswa kwemagetsi kutevedzera kutengesa kupfuura zvakasiyana. Engineers rudzi iri muzvina mhando:

• Shift: fambisa kushandiswa kune imwe vhiki pasina kuchinja iyo yakazara. Kupisa chigaro chemvura yakachena pazuva, kubhadharisa mota nenguva yese, kufambisa muchina wekunwa kana uswa richibva.
• Shed: wedzera kushandiswa kwenguva pfupi uye gamuchirai basa rakawanda, semuenzaniso, kuisa thermostat imwe degre pasi kweawa rimwe chete kana nguva yezhizha ichikwira.
• Shape: chinja chimiro chezuva nezuva kuburikidza nematarisiro ayo anoita kuti dzimwe mazuva dzive dzakachipa kupfuura vamwe, senge nguva-yekushandisa kana mamitengo ehafu yeawa.
• Shimmy: nyore, zvidiki gadziriso mukati masekondi kana maminitsi ayo anobatsira kuchengetedza grid frequency yakasimba, iyo madziro emvura, mabhatiri uye chargers emotokari anogona kuita pasina munhu achiziva.

Kana mamiriyoni ezvigadzirwa zvakadai zvave kutevedzana nesoftware uye zvichipihwa kune grid seimwe yemari, iyo mhinduro inonzi virtual power plant: inoita sepower station pakupera, kunze kwekuti yakagadzirwa nemahotera. Kuongorora kwemunda kunotaura nezvekugadziriswa kwese kwezvigadzirwa uye kuti sei kugadzikana kuchiwedzera kuchengetera uye kupisa grids (Lund et al., 2015; Albadi neEl-Saadany, 2008).

Maitiro ekushanda

The duck curve. Pazuva rakajeka rekutanga mudunhu rine simba rakawanda rezuva, zvinodiwa zvemagetsi izvo zvimwe zvikamu zvemumunda zvafanirwa kusangana nazvo, zvinonzi net load, zvinokwira zvakanyanya pakupera kwezuva uyezve zvinokwirawo zvikuru manheru apo zuva rinomira uye vanhu vachidzokera kumba. Kuratidzwa kwezuva rimwe chete, kurongeka kunoita seduck, fomu rakakurumbira kubva kuCalifornia grid operator (CAISO, 2016). The steep manheru rampu uye peak ndezvemaawa zvakachipa kushandira; masikati belly zvinoreva solar zvipatara zvinovharwa, kana akaderera, nekuda kwekuda.

The simple arithmetic. Nhamba mbiri dzinotaura kuti zvipi zvinoitwa neflexibility, uye muongorori anoratidza kuti ndezvipi zvinoitwa negrid yemugwagwa.

• Peak net load, iyo yakakura kwazvo hukama pakati pedambudziko uye mhepo pamwe nezuva. Inoratidza kuti ndezvipi zvivakwa zvemagetsi, mabhatiri kana zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvatinofanira kuchengeta zviripo. Kufamba kutakura kunze kwezuva rinodzikira.
• Curtailment, yakachena simba rakagadzirwa asi risingashandisike. Kufamba kutakura muzuva mazuva anoshandisa.
• Carbon intensity, iyo inoreva huwandu hwekubuda kwemhepo pazuva. Kana chigaro chaiswa negasi panenge 450 g yeCO2 per kWh, pazuva rimwe chete rinogona kuchengetwa makirowatt 450 kubva pakubuda kwemvura.

Muzuva rekuratidza, kuchinja kwezvikwereti zvina izvo pamwe chete zvinoshandisa 300 MWh pazuva, nezve imwe yegumi yechikumbiro cheguta, chinoderedza peak yemanheru iyo gasi inofanirwa kusanganisira kubva pamaawa e112 MW kusvika kumaawa e61 MW, kunoderedza simba rezuva uye remhepo kubva kumaawa e580 kusvika kumaawa e380 MWh, uye kunodzikisa huwandu hwecarbon kubva kumaawa e130 kusvika kumaawa e90 g per kWh. Iyo simba rakashandiswa ndeimwe chete. Zvimiro zvinoratidzwa, asi nzira imwecheteyo ndiyo iyo grid operators vanovimba nayo.

Zvino zvimwe zvezvikwereti zvinonakidza. A good flexible load stores energy or has slack in its schedule:

• Vashandi vemvura vanotora simba remagetsi: 200-litre tank inopisa kusvika pa40 °C inoita 9 kWh. Kupisa pazuva pedyo nechiedza chezuva kwete pazuva rinotanga kubuda hakusi kuzochinja chero chinhu pakunwa.
• Mabhasi emagetsi stand parked kwemazuva akawanda, uye a typical zuva nezuva drive of 30 kusvika 50 km inodiwa chete pamusoro 5 kusvika 10 kWh. Chitima chinopinda mubhatiri kwemazuva makumi maviri nemana chinofanira kubhadharisa imwe kana mbiri dzezvimwe, uye chinogona kusarudza kuti ndeipi.
• Heat pumps mu well-insulated imba anogona preheat imba munguva yemangwanani uye kuchamhembe nechitima kuburikidza nezuva peak neimba yake pachayo maseva sekuchengetera.
• Dishwashers, mashini ekugezera uye dryers vanoda nguva yekupera, kwete nguva yekutanga.

Control, not willpower. Kubvunza vanhu kuti vaone grid haisi nguva yakareba. Zvinyorwa zvekubudirira zvinobatanidza mutengo wakajeka kana mubairo neautomation: smart thermostat, charger kana controller yemvura-inopisa iyo inotevera chiratidzo, ine nyore kuchinja. MuBritain’s Demand Flexibility Service, kupfuura 99% yevadzidzi muzhizha re2023/24 vakaenderera mberi vachipindura nemunhu (NESO, 2024), izvo zvinofadza kubatanidzwa kwevanhu uyewo chikonzero chekugadziriswa kwezvinhu: maoko anobata, vatungamiriri havaite.

Mitemo: Theoretical uye Practical

Zvinorambidzwa nefiziki. Kugona kuchinja kunotakurwa nekuchengetera mubasa: kuti nguvai dziri kugara dzakaomarara, kuti nguvai dziri kugara dzakaomarara, kuti nguvai inodiwa nemotokari kusvika musi wekutanga. Inogona kuchinja simba nenguva, nguva nenguva nezuva, asi kwete kubva kuzhizha kuenda kuzhizha. Izviwo hazvigone kubvisa mvura yakawandisa inobuda muzuva rimwe chete kana kuti nguva yevhiki iine nguva yakati wandei isina mvura: izvi zvinoda kuchengetwa, kugadzirwa kwemagetsi kana kutengeswa.

Zvinorambidza vanhu uye misika:

• Kuita mabasa ebasa. Kuita basa rechinguvana kunoshanda zvakanaka kakawanda muzhizha. Mazuva nezuva maapplication pasina automation anorasikirwa nevashandi.
• The baseline problem. Kuti ubhadhare munhu wekushandisa zvishoma, unofanirwa kufungidzira kuti chii chavaizoshandisa kana pasina. Basaline inogona kugamuchirwa, uye ivo vanowanzova zvakaoma kuratidza kuti ndezvipi zvinodiwa nemhuri imwe chete.
• Rebound uye matsva mapikicha. Load akachinja kubva imwe nguva dzimba mumwe. Kana mamiriyoni e chargers kutanga pamwechete nguva cheap nguva inotanga, vanogona kugadzira nyowani peak panzvimbo cables. Zvakanaka zvirongwa stagger uye randomise.
• Fairness. Vagari vane mota, maheat pumps nesmart meters vanogona kuwana mari kubva pakugona kuchinja; avo vasina havagone. Tariffs haasi kumanikidza vanhu kuti vaende kuno, semuenzaniso avo vari kuchengeta munhu kumba.
• Privacy uye cyber security. A system that can switch a million devices is a target. Zviyero, encryption uye zvemunharaunda fallbacks zvinokosha.
• Metering and settlement. Pasina mita dzenguva yechiuru cheawa nemamiriro emusika ayo anobhadhara kugadzikana, kunyange mhuri dzinodawo hadzigone kupihwa mari.

Real michina, yakaenzana

Chirongwa	Chii chakanga chakaongororwa	Musoro
Great Britain Demand Flexibility Service, winter 2022/23	Over 1.6 million households and businesses through 31 providers took part in 22 events and cut consumption by about 3,300 MWh. Average payment: £3,000 per MWh in test events, £4,559 per MWh in the two live events of January 2023. Response in live events was 20% higher than in tests	NESO yegore rino, 2023
Great Britain Demand Flexibility Service, winter 2023/24	2.6 miriyoni metres (99% yekunze) kuburikidza 48 vanopa; 14 zvidzidzo uye 2 live mafambiro; pamusoro 3,7 GWh akapihwa nechikepe chepamusoro chezvinopfuura 400 MW; kubhadharisa £ 11.9 miriyoni; mukwikwidzi zvidzidzo iyo inosvika yakagamuchira bhiri yakadzikira kusvika £ 1,111 per MWh, nebhizimisi sevha £ 150	NESO report yegore rapera, 2024
US demand response and virtual power plants - Kutanga kwechirongwa chekuongorora	A inofungidzirwa 30 kusvika 60 GW yevirtual simba plant kugona yapfuura kushanda muUS, zvikuru mumigwagwa-kubvunza-kutaura mapurogiramu anoshandiswa kakawanda pagore	US DOE, Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants, 2023
US potential by 2030	Pamusoro pe200 GW yemari-inodhura yekutakura kugadzikana, 20% yechiratidzo, kupfuura katatu pane 60 GW yekutsvaga mhinduro yacho iripo, inokwana $15 bhiriyoni pagore mumitengo yakagadziriswa	Brattle, 2019
US target	80 to 160 GW of virtual power plants by 2030, 10 to 20% of peak demand, saving on the order of $10 billion a year in grid costs	US DOE, 2023

Kushanda kweBritain ndeimwe yemhando yepamusoro yekuongorora hurumende kusvika parizvino. In two winters it went from an emergency measure to a routine tool: the number of providers grew by 58%, sign-ups reached 2.6 million meters, and once providers had to compete in tests the average accepted price fell to about £1,100 per MWh, against £3,000 in the first winter’s tests. Izviwo zvinoratidza huwandu hwezvigadzirwa: 400 MW pakupera kwegore inoita seimwe yakakura gasi-inopisa unit, inotengeswa nevanhu mamiriyoni emadzimai, vamwe vavo vachishanda nechisimba.

Chii chinodhura

Kugona kuchinja-chinja hakutengeswe nekilowatt-hour sezvakaitika pamagetsi emagetsi. Inotengeswa nekilowatt yepamusoro inosimbisa, pagore, nekuti ndiyo iyo inoshandura: mishonga uye mabhatiri akagadzirwa kuti arambe achigadzirira kwemazuva mashoma.

Kusarudza kuti uvhure peak	Kubhadhara	Musoro
Gas peaking plant, new	$0.110 to $0.228 pa kWh yakagadzirwa, ichishanda chete pazvipembenene	Lazard LCOE+, 2024
Gas peak, utility-scale bhatiri uye residential VPP, 400 MW yekuvimbika kwemufananidzo weUS utility	VPP’s net mutengo kune utility ndeye 40% yegas peak uye 60% yebhatiri. Kuverenga emitions uye kugadzikana, gore negore net mutengo ndeye $43 million for gas, $29 miriyoni yebhatiri uye $ 2 miriyoni yeVPP	Brattle, Real Reliability, 2023
Emergency kuderedza dambudziko remhuri, Great Britain	£ 1,111 kuti £ 4,559 per MWh akapa, kwemazuva mashoma muzhizha	NESO, 2023 and 2024
Rooftop solar pane imba, yedu generation benchmark	$0.19 per kWh central; commercial rooftop $0.09 to $0.20	Our Fan Wall model; Lazard, 2026

Mabhuku maviri anobuda kubva pane imwe tafura. Pakutanga, pa kWh, kuderera kwepeak-time kunotaridzika kwakanyanya, asi kuwedzera kwemuchina zvakare kuri nyore nekuda kwekuti kunofamba zvakanyanya; nekW yekuvimbika, mahome akagadzikana ndiwo achipa sarudzo muzvidzidzo zvakapfuura, uye Brattle anofungidzira kuti 60 GW US kumisikidza kungasangana nezvinodiwa zvenguva pfupi zvekuvimbika zve $15 to $35 bhiriyoni kupfuura makore gumi kupfuura zvimwe zvinhu. Zvita, kugadzikana hakusi kukwikwidza neruzivo rwedu rwezuva rezuva, asi inonyatsoigadzirisa. Solar inogadzira zvakanyanya pazuva; kugadzikana kunofamba kushandisa mumazuva aya, izvo zvinowedzera kukosha kwese pane imwe uye zvinoderedza kudiwa kwebhatiri.

Panogona kukunda, uye apo haigone

I can win:

• Grids nesimba rakawanda rezuva, uko mutengo wechinyakare unokwira kusvika pazero uye nguva dzese dziri kukwira dzinodhura.
• Mahotera ane emagetsi heating, hot-mvura matanki, heat pumps kana emagetsi mota, zvinodiwa kuti uchengete simba nehunhu.
• Ma network emuno akatarisana nemamiriro avo, uko kudzora kana mota dzichibhadhara zvinogona kubvisa matsva ma cables netransformers; US DOE inotaura kuti Californian studies yakawana kuti kubhadharisa kwakachena kungaita kuti zvive nyore kuderedza mari yekugovera kusvika pa2035 kubva pa $50 billion to $15 kusvika $20 bhiriyoni.
• Business nethermal maitiro: cold zvitoro, kumanikidza madziro, heating uye kutonhora mabhizimisi.

I can’t win:

• Long calm, dark periods. Kuchinja kwemazuva hakugone kusangana nevhiki isina mhepo muzhizha.
• Kutakurwa kuri kuitwa nhasi: mahotera, kupisa kwemagetsi, kugadzirira kudya, indasitiri yakawanda iri kushanda nenguva.
• Pasina kuongororwa kwemari nematanho akarurama. Panzvimbo apo mameter anoverenga kamwechete pamwedzi uye mari isiri yechikwereti, hapana chinhu chinoda kutariswa uye hapana nzira yekubhadharwa.

Chii chinoratidza, chinofungidzirwa uye chinofungidzira

Proven: mamirioni emhuri achazvibvunza nezvekukwira kwenguva yekushanda kana akapihwa mubairo (Great Britain, 2022 kusvika 2024); zvishongedzo zvemvura, thermostats, chargers uye mabhatiri anogona kudzorwa kubva panzvimbo pane scale; Virtual power plants yave ichipa makumi egigabats muUS; Kuchinja kutakura kune zvishoma nguva zvinoderedza kurwisa uye emitting kana iyo yakaderera michina iri fosi.

Plausible: kuti otomatiki imba kugadzikana anogona kunge akavimbika sesimba plant yezviwanikwa zvakakwana (Brattle’s modeling, kwete kusvika makore gumi ekushandisa data); kuti kugadzikana anogona kupa 10-20% peak zvinodiwa na2030 muUS; kuti vakawanda mhuri neheat pumps uye mota dzemagetsi vachabvuma otomatiki kudzora kana override iri nyore uye mari yakachengetwa zviri pachena.

Speculative: gore rese, zuva nezuva kugadzikana kubva kumaruwa akawanda pasina kushushikana; zvakarurama zvikonzero zvemhuri pasina kugadzikana maturusi; zhinji-kukura kugadzikana pasina nyowani dzekuchengetedza mamiriro.

Ongororo dzekutsvaga

• Sei anofanira baseline kufungidzirwa zvakaenzana uye zvakachipa kune mhuri, uye ndeipi njodzi inobvumirwa?
• Ndezvipi Zvimwe zvinhu pagore vanhu vachabvuma, uye sei automation ichichinja kuti?
• Maitiro ekuderedza synchronized rebound peaks kana zvinhu zvakawanda zvichipindura kune imwe chete mutengo?
• Chii chinonzi thermal flexibility yezvivakwa zvinopisa, uye sei ichichinja nemvura yekudziya uye tembiricha kunze?
• Ndeapi tarifa magadzirirwo anopa mibairo zvakaenzana nevanhu vasina kuchinja?
• Sei kugadzikana kuri kuongororwa panzvimbo dzemagetsi, kwete chete pa grid yenyika?

Chii chine basa prototype aifanira

Kuti uwane kugadzikana, anoshanda model haasi drawing of an app. Icho chiratidzo che Kuongororwa kwechimiro chekutakura kwechokwadi pane zvakajairika zvinhu: kWh yachinja, kW yechiratidzo chekubvisa, nesangano rekuenzanisa, pamusoro pemwaka wose. The Equipment ndiyo cheap; rigor ndicho chinodiwa.

Phase	Kushanda	Kufunga kunobvumira	Ruvara	_Zvinyorwa
0. Design	Choose the load (for example hot-water tanks), the signal (price, carbon intensity or grid event), metering, consent and a statistical plan with a control group	Ichokwadi here kuti mhedzisiro iyi iri yakakura zvakakwana kuti iongororwe nenzvimbo dzemabasa dziripo?	$5k to $15k	1 kusvika 2 mwedzi
1. Bench uye kugara mubvunzo	Vagadziri ve5 kusvika 10 zvechokwadi zviwanikwa, mita yenguva nenguva, kuchengeta ruzivo	Chigadzirwa chinochinja sei zvakachengeteka, uye vanhu vanoibvisa here?	$10k to $30k	3 months
2. Working mufananidzo	50 kusvika ku200 mahomes ane yakaenzana ongororo yechikwata chekudzora kwemwedzi miviri kana mitatu, neyega-yega analysis ye kWh yakachinja uye kW yakaderera	Kuongororwa kwezvimiro zvemumba, kubatanidzwa uye rusununguko	$50k to $200k	6 kusvika 9 months
3. Market pilot	Kunyora zvivakwa zvakabatanidzwa nekambani yemagetsi kana chirongwa chekufambisa grid uye kubhadharwa kwezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi zvinopihwa	Revenue per home, cost per kW-year, fit with market rules	$150k to $500k	12 months

Tinofanira kuita sei

• Power-systems engineers avo vanoziva sei kugadzikana kuri kuendeswa, kuongororwa uye kugadziriswa.
• Data vatsvakurudzi uye statisticians yebasa, kudzora mapoka uye ongororo.
• Behavioural vatsvakurudzi kugadzirwa zvinopa vanhu kunzwisisa uye kuchengetedza kushandisa.
• Embedded uye security engineers yevatungamiriri avo vakachengeteka, vakavanzika uye kushanda offline.
• Heating, hot-water and electric-vehicle charging specialists.
• Regulatory uye tarisiro vaongorori avo vanogona kuvhura maindasitiri kune mashoma akagadzikana zviwanikwa.
• Vatungamiriri vemasangano evanhu pamwe nemadzimai vanogona kuumba mhuri dzakachena, dzinosanganisira dzevasiri mari.

Une pfungwa yakanaka?

Vamwe vatungamiri vesangano iri vanogona kunge vane vanhu vanoita kuti vaone kuti pane chikonzero chekusimudzira pfungwa yekushandisa simba. Kuti iite, pfungwa inofanira kunge iri inoshanda, yakajeka-hupenyu mufananidzo, nemhedzisiro yayo yakavakirwa pachinhu, kwete kutaurwa. Kuti uwane kugadzikana, izvi zvinoreva kuti zvinhu zvichashandiswa muzvivakwa kana mabhizimisi, nemari yemagetsi ichachinja uye kW yechiratidzo ichadzikira, zvichienzaniswa nezvinhu zvinodarika. Ipfungwa dzepapepa dziri kutarisirwawo: kana physics uye mazita ari nyore, tinogona kuzviburitsa pano pawebsite. Asi kusimudzira mari pasina kushanda model iri nyore, uye hapana pano ndiro mashoko emari, kudzoka kana kutsvagisa.

Kutumira pfungwa yako kana kuedza kwako zviwanikwa kuburikidza ne kubatsira chimiro: dambudziko iri kugadziriswa, kutakura uye chiratidzo, yakaderera kana inofungidzirwa kuchinja, a rough cost per kW kana per home, uye cheapest bvunzo kuti inogona kuratidza zvakaipa. Kuti uwane mamwe mazano, ona Energy Alternatives Compared.

Zvinyorwa

1. The Brattle Group (Chikunguru 2019). The National Potential for Load Flexibility: Value and Market Potential Through 2030.
2. Hledik, R. and Peters, K., The Brattle Group (May 2023). Real Reliability: The Value of Virtual Power, yakagadzirira Google.
3. US Department of Energy (September 2023). Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants.
4. National Energy System Operator (yakapfuura ESO) (August 2023). Demand Flexibility Service winter review 2022/23.
5. National Energy System Operator (2024). Demand Flexibility Service winter 2023/24 end of year report; zvinyorwa zvebasa.
6. California ISO (2016). Zvinotaura nezvekudzora kwechiedza chemaruva.
7. Lund, P.D., Lindgren, J., Mikkola, J. and Salpakari, J. (2015). Kuongorora kwezvirongwa zvekuvandudzwa kwesimba remagetsi kuti zvigone kubvumira huwandu hwakawanda hwemagetsi anogadziriswazve. Kuvandudzwa uye Kuchengetedzwa kweEnergy Reviews 45, 785-807.
8. Munyori: M.H. Albadi, E.F. El-Saadany (2008). Mufananidzo wekusangana kwechikumbiro mumisika yemagetsi. Electric Power Systems Research 78, 1989-1996.
9. Lazard (June 2024). Levelized Cost of Energy+, version 17: peak yegasi $110 to $228 per MWh. Chinyorwa cheJune 2026 chinopa simba rezuva rekunze rakashandiswa sechinhu chikuru.
10. Local Solar System Foundation. The Fan Wall: open wind research, yezuva rezuva rekuratidzira kwe $ 0.19 per kWh.